Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Far North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 03:50 AM EDT on Saturday 07 December 2019
Weather Situation
Warm to hot and dry west to southwesterly winds will result in elevated fire dangers across the northern and eastern parts of New South Wales.
For the rest of Saturday 07 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
New England and Northern Slopes
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Far North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Central Ranges and North Western
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Bryans Gap (29.0167°S, 152.0833°E, 893m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY15° 34° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:19am EDT 5:45am EDT 7:41pm EDT 8:08pm EDT NOW26.1° Feels Like: 23.0° Relative Humidity: 19% Dew: 0.7° Wind: NE 6km/h Gust: 7km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Bryans GapNow21.7°cFeels Like:18.6°Wind:NNE 7km/hGusts:9km/hHumidity:26%15°Min34°MaxToday in Bryans GapHot and sunny. Areas of smoke haze on and east of the ranges. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/SW in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 29 to 38.Tomorrow13°Min32°MaxHot and sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 35. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot and sunny. Areas of smoke haze on and east of the ranges. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/SW in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 29 to 38.
Forecast for Bryans Gap (29.0167°S, 152.0833°E, 893m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 15° 13° 15° 17° 17° 16° 16° Maximum 34° 32° 31° 33° 32° 32° 29° Chance of rain 5% 20% 40% 50% 70% 90% 80% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 5-10mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 6
(km/h)16
(km/h)10
(km/h)8
(km/h)12
(km/h)8
(km/h)7
(km/h)7
(km/h)7
(km/h)6
(km/h)9
(km/h)13
(km/h)9
(km/h)10
(km/h)Wind direction N W E NE E ENE WNW W W SSE NW NW NW NW Relative humidity 25% 14% 51% 27% 72% 40% 60% 32% 54% 39% 56% 37% 60% 54% Dew point 6°C 3°C 12°C 11°C 16°C 16°C 17°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 18°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bryans Gap Rain Forecast
Bryans Gap 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
9
10
LOW11
HIGH12
MEDIUM13
HIGH14
15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
MEDIUM22
HIGH23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
HIGH26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bryans Gap Rain Forecast
Bryans Gap 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020356675646657105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bryans Gap Rain Forecast
Bryans Gap 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
9
10
LOW11
HIGH12
MEDIUM13
HIGH14
15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
21
MEDIUM22
HIGH23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
HIGH26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
Jan 1
2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bryans Gap Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0214.7 °C 22.9 °C 34.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0310.3 °C 24.5 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0410.2 °C - 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 05- 29.8 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 066.6 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bryans Gap minimum temp history (29.0167°S, 152.0833°E, 893m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 30.2° 01/12/2019 Coldest this month 10.2° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 36.8 07/12/1981 Coldest on record 1.2 05/12/1984 Hottest this year 35.7° 19/01/2019 Coldest this year -9.1° 19/07/2019 Long term average 26.1° Long term average 12.9° Average this month 25.9° Average this month 11.7° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.6° 1979 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.0° 2011 Bryans Gap rainfall history (29.0167°S, 152.0833°E, 893m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 34.0mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 34.0mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 105.1mm 9.8 days Wettest December on record 312.8mm 1979 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Bryans Gap Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 848.9mm 99.0 day(s) Total For 2019 289.4mm 82.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 396.4mm 85.0 day(s) Wettest Day 34.0mm Dec 2 Lowest Temperature -9.1°C Jul19 Highest Temperature 35.7°C Jan19 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Bryans Gap Climatology
Bryans Gap Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.7 25.9 24.5 21.9 18.3 15.4 14.8 16.4 19.6 22.4 24.4 26.1 21.4 Mean Min (°C) 14.6 14.5 12.6 8.6 5.1 2.4 0.8 1.6 4.5 7.8 10.7 12.9 8.0 Mean Rain (mm) 114.9 93.8 80.9 47.2 48.7 49.9 53.5 43.7 50.3 75.7 85.2 105.1 848.0 Mean Rain Days 10.4 9.8 9.8 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.3 6.5 6.4 8.0 8.7 9.8 97.7