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Forecast

Broken Head (28.7172°S, 153.5923°E, 6m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 23° 29°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:49am EDT 6:14am EDT 7:43pm EDT 8:09pm EDT
    NOW
    25.2° Feels Like: 29.3°
    Relative Humidity: 90%
    Dew: 23.4°
    Wind: SW 7km/h
    Gust: 9km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1016.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Broken Head
    Now
    25.0°c
    Feels Like:
    29.2°
    Wind:
    NW 7km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    92%
    Mostly sunny
     
    23°
    Min
    29°
    Max
    Today in Broken Head
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower during the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending NE in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 30s.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    22°
    Min
    29°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 30s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Broken Head

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower during the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming E 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending NE in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low 30s.

    Forecast for Broken Head (28.7172°S, 153.5923°E, 6m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny Possible thunderstorm Showers Possible shower
    Minimum 23° 22° 22° 22° 23° 23° 21°
    Maximum 29° 29° 29° 30° 31° 28° 27°
    Chance of rain 20% 50% 30% 10% 80% 90% 90%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 20-40mm 20-40mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 8
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NE ENE ENE E NE NE N NNE N NNE SSW S SSE SSE
    Relative humidity 78% 73% 71% 68% 78% 69% 78% 73% 76% 69% 86% 86% 87% 85%
    Dew point 22°C 24°C 20°C 22°C 20°C 23°C 22°C 25°C 22°C 25°C 24°C 24°C 22°C 24°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Broken Head Rain Forecast


    Broken Head 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    HIGH
    6
    HIGH
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    HIGH
    11
    HIGH
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Broken Head Rain Forecast


    Broken Head 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    4
    6
    5
    7
    7
    6
    8
    6
    6
    7
    4
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Broken Head Rain Forecast


    Broken Head 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    2
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    HIGH
    6
    HIGH
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    HIGH
    11
    HIGH
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan29

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 February to 11 February, 19 February to 23 February, and 2 March to 6 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 February to 11 February, 25 February to 29 February, and 29 February to 4 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 February to 9 February, and 14 February to 18 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Broken Head Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jan 25
    25.1 °C 28.1 °C
    0.4 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 26
    21.0 °C 29.6 °C
    2.0 mm
    Monday
    Jan 27
    20.1 °C 29.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 28
    19.5 °C 29.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 29
    19.9 °C 32 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Broken Head minimum temp history (28.7172°S, 153.5923°E, 6m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 33.0° 21/01/2020 Coldest this month 17.9° 05/01/2020
    Hottest on record 42.0 12/01/2002 Coldest on record 12.2 15/01/1997
    Hottest this year 33.0° 21/01/2020 Coldest this year 17.9° 05/01/2020
    Long term average 28.3° Long term average 19.7°
    Average this month 29.5° Average this month 20.8°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.4° 2010 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 18.2° 1997
    Broken Head rainfall history (28.7172°S, 153.5923°E, 6m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 74.8mm 19/01/2020 Total This Month 170.0mm
    11.0 days
    Long Term Average 174.8mm 14.4 days Wettest January on record 362.2mm 2010
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Broken Head Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 174.8mm 14.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 170.0mm 11.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 2.4mm 5.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 74.8mm Jan19
    Lowest Temperature 17.9°C Jan 5
    Highest Temperature 33.0°C Jan21
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Broken Head Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.3 28.1 27.1 24.9 22.5 20.3 19.9 21.3 23.6 24.9 26.3 27.5 24.6
    Mean Min (°C) 19.7 19.6 18.3 15.3 12.1 10.0 8.7 8.8 11.5 13.9 16.6 18.3 14.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 174.8 188.9 228.3 193.5 163.4 204.1 118.9 99.9 61.7 94.4 128.6 142.2 1804.7
    Mean Rain Days 14.4 14.9 18.0 15.3 14.3 13.0 11.5 9.3 9.1 11.1 12.0 12.6 147.6