Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 04:15 AM EDT on Thursday 12 December 2019
Weather Situation
Very hot, dry conditions will cause dangerous fire conditions across parts of central and northern New South Wales today (Thursday).
For the rest of Thursday 12 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Northern Slopes and North Western
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Brenda (29.0999°S, 147.213°E, 135m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY21° 37° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:37am EDT 6:05am EDT 8:07pm EDT 8:35pm EDT NOW19.9° Feels Like: 15.4° Relative Humidity: 22% Dew: -2.4° Wind: S 11km/h Gust: 13km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1011.2hPa -
Today Weather
BrendaNow19.9°cFeels Like:15.4°Wind:S 11km/hGusts:13km/hHumidity:22%21°Min37°MaxToday in BrendaMostly sunny. Possible raised dust. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to high 30s.Tomorrow20°Min34°MaxSunny. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Possible raised dust. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to high 30s.
Forecast for Brenda (29.0999°S, 147.213°E, 135m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 21° 20° 18° 20° 22° 23° 23° Maximum 37° 34° 37° 40° 42° 42° 42° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 22
(km/h)20
(km/h)23
(km/h)19
(km/h)21
(km/h)15
(km/h)14
(km/h)10
(km/h)15
(km/h)17
(km/h)22
(km/h)15
(km/h)21
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction SSW SSW S SW S SSW SSE SW SSE SSW E ESE NE ENE Relative humidity 20% 10% 26% 11% 23% 15% 26% 13% 18% 10% 34% 17% 33% 16% Dew point 2°C 0°C 4°C -1°C 2°C 5°C 7°C 6°C 4°C 4°C 11°C 11°C 12°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Brenda Rain Forecast
Brenda 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
LOW6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Brenda Rain Forecast
Brenda 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020537675773738105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
-
Long range rainfall forecast
Brenda Rain Forecast
Brenda 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
Jan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
LOW6
7
8
9
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Past 5 Days
Brenda Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 0721.3 °C 36.7 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0820.7 °C 39.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0923.9 °C 41.3 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1027.8 °C 44.1 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1125.1 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Brenda minimum temp history (29.0999°S, 147.213°E, 135m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 41.3° 09/12/2019 Coldest this month 11.5° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 43.6 04/12/2016 Coldest on record 5.0 26/12/2006 Hottest this year 46.0° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year 0.2° 21/06/2019 Long term average 34.5° Long term average 20.1° Average this month 34.7° Average this month 19.3° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 38.5° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 17.1° 2008 Brenda rainfall history (29.0999°S, 147.213°E, 135m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.4mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.4mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 60.3mm 6.9 days Wettest December on record 170.6mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
-
Year to Date
Brenda Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 476.0mm 61.8 day(s) Total For 2019 103.1mm 26.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 234.8mm 33.0 day(s) Wettest Day 22.0mm Mar17 Lowest Temperature 0.2°C Jun21 Highest Temperature 46.0°C Jan16 -
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Brenda Climatology
Brenda Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 35.9 34.8 32.3 28.0 23.2 19.3 19.0 21.6 25.9 29.4 32.0 34.5 28.0 Mean Min (°C) 22.4 21.7 18.9 14.3 9.0 6.6 5.1 6.2 10.4 14.1 18.2 20.1 14.0 Mean Rain (mm) 50.6 41.9 41.8 27.9 26.4 48.2 32.5 18.4 32.3 39.6 56.1 60.3 475.8 Mean Rain Days 5.8 4.7 5.2 3.5 4.2 5.8 5.1 4.0 4.4 5.3 6.9 6.9 58.5