Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Central Ranges, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Wednesday 11 December 2019
Weather Situation
Very hot, dry and windy conditions will cause dangerous fire conditions across parts of central and northern New South Wales today.
For the rest of Wednesday 11 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
North Western
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Central Ranges and Northern Slopes
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Breakfast Creek (32.677°S, 150.0128°E, 672m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY12° 30° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:16am EDT 5:44am EDT 8:00pm EDT 8:28pm EDT NOW27.6° Feels Like: 26.0° Relative Humidity: 34% Dew: 10.3° Wind: NNW 9km/h Gust: 9km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Breakfast CreekNow31.4°cFeels Like:28.5°Wind:NNW 17km/hGusts:19km/hHumidity:29%12°Min30°MaxToday in Breakfast CreekMostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the north this afternoon. Winds NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h tending NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 28 to 37.Tomorrow12°Min25°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers about the Blue Mountains. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending NE/SE in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 24 to 34. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the north this afternoon. Winds NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h tending NW/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then tending NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 28 to 37.
Forecast for Breakfast Creek (32.677°S, 150.0128°E, 672m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 12° 10° 11° 13° 16° 11° Maximum 30° 25° 25° 28° 31° 32° 31° Chance of rain 20% 30% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)8
(km/h)9
(km/h)8
(km/h)10
(km/h)6
(km/h)6
(km/h)8
(km/h)7
(km/h)14
(km/h)8
(km/h)11
(km/h)9
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction SE NE ESE E ESE NNE SW WSW WNW W SW S ESE ESE Relative humidity 63% 31% 73% 36% 67% 29% 55% 21% 50% 17% 33% 19% 50% 21% Dew point 9°C 11°C 10°C 9°C 8°C 5°C 9°C 4°C 10°C 3°C 5°C 5°C 8°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Breakfast Creek Rain Forecast
Breakfast Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
LOW26
27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Breakfast Creek Rain Forecast
Breakfast Creek 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020236664754516105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Breakfast Creek Rain Forecast
Breakfast Creek 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
LOW26
27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
7
8
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Breakfast Creek Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 0711.7 °C 27.5 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0811.0 °C 24.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0912.4 °C 29.8 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 1019.1 °C 34 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1111 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Breakfast Creek minimum temp history (32.677°S, 150.0128°E, 672m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.0° 10/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.0° 02/12/2019 Hottest on record 32.7 31/12/2005 Coldest on record -0.6 16/12/1996 Hottest this year 34.6° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year -2.0° 21/06/2019 Long term average 22.4° Long term average 11.8° Average this month 24.5° Average this month 10.9° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.6° 1990 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 9.1° 2011 Breakfast Creek rainfall history (32.677°S, 150.0128°E, 672m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.6mm 03/12/2019 Total This Month 4.0mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 95.3mm 10.8 days Wettest December on record 234.6mm 1990 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Breakfast Creek Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 991.1mm 145.8 day(s) Total For 2019 581.4mm 116.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 615.2mm 118.0 day(s) Wettest Day 47.2mm Jan24 Lowest Temperature -2.0°C Jun21 Highest Temperature 34.6°C Jan16 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Breakfast Creek Climatology
Breakfast Creek Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 24.1 22.9 20.2 16.8 12.9 9.7 9.0 10.8 14.1 17.4 19.9 22.4 16.6 Mean Min (°C) 13.6 13.3 11.4 8.5 5.8 3.5 2.4 3.0 5.4 7.7 10.0 11.8 8.0 Mean Rain (mm) 104.6 103.2 96.7 61.3 59.6 87.0 68.0 58.8 76.4 73.9 106.3 95.3 990.5 Mean Rain Days 11.0 11.9 13.3 11.8 12.4 16.0 15.5 10.9 10.4 9.4 12.4 10.8 139.8