Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Far North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 03:50 AM EDT on Saturday 07 December 2019
Weather Situation
Warm to hot and dry west to southwesterly winds will result in elevated fire dangers across the northern and eastern parts of New South Wales.
For the rest of Saturday 07 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
New England and Northern Slopes
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Far North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Central Ranges and North Western
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Border Loop (28.35°S, 152.9666°E, 293m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY18° 41° Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 4:18am EST 4:44am EST 6:35pm EST 7:01pm EST NOW14.5° Feels Like: 15.5° Relative Humidity: 92% Dew: 13.2° Wind: CAL 0km/h Gust: 0km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Border LoopNow19.4°cFeels Like:20.6°Wind:CAL 0km/hGusts:0km/hHumidity:70%18°Min41°MaxToday in Border LoopHot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h shifting E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 37.Tomorrow19°Min37°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the north in the evening. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming SE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h shifting E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 37.
Forecast for Border Loop (28.35°S, 152.9666°E, 293m AMSL) Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Summary Minimum 18° 19° 20° 19° 20° 20° 19° Maximum 41° 37° 35° 38° 39° 37° 35° Chance of rain 10% 50% 40% 20% 30% 50% 90% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm 5-10mm UV index Extreme Extreme High Very High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 4
(km/h)19
(km/h)7
(km/h)15
(km/h)8
(km/h)16
(km/h)6
(km/h)15
(km/h)7
(km/h)14
(km/h)11
(km/h)18
(km/h)7
(km/h)13
(km/h)Wind direction S E SSE E SE E NNE NE NNE NE N NE NNE ENE Relative humidity 24% 27% 52% 43% 59% 54% 58% 43% 53% 41% 51% 39% 55% 53% Dew point 11°C 15°C 20°C 22°C 20°C 23°C 20°C 23°C 21°C 22°C 19°C 20°C 19°C 23°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Border Loop Rain Forecast
Border Loop 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
MEDIUM21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
28
29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Border Loop Rain Forecast
Border Loop 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020456577636677105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Border Loop Rain Forecast
Border Loop 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT7
8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
MEDIUM14
15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
MEDIUM21
22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
LOW26
LOW27
28
29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
We're sorry, but there are no daily observations available for Border Loop
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Almanac
Almanac
Border Loop minimum temp history (28.35°S, 152.9666°E, 293m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 35.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 11.4° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.8 25/12/1972 Coldest on record 10.6 18/12/1980 Hottest this year 37.5° 08/11/2019 Coldest this year 0.2° 21/08/2019 Long term average 29.1° Long term average 18.5° Average this month 32.3° Average this month 16.2° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.1° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 16.6° 1999 Border Loop rainfall history (28.35°S, 152.9666°E, 293m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 15.0mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 168.9mm 13.6 days Wettest December on record 499.9mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Border Loop Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1605.3mm 147.0 day(s) Total For 2019 612.8mm 84.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 1063.9mm 115.0 day(s) Wettest Day 57.0mm Jun26 Lowest Temperature 0.2°C Aug21 Highest Temperature 37.5°C Nov 8 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Border Loop Climatology
Border Loop Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.5 29.0 28.1 26.1 23.5 21.2 21.0 22.4 25.0 26.5 27.7 29.1 25.8 Mean Min (°C) 19.7 19.6 18.3 15.6 12.6 9.9 8.5 8.8 11.5 14.1 16.7 18.5 14.5 Mean Rain (mm) 211.4 220.6 224.5 154.4 132.6 105.5 61.8 55.4 41.4 104.1 124.7 168.9 1611.2 Mean Rain Days 15.0 15.9 17.0 14.2 12.6 11.0 8.7 7.8 8.0 10.4 12.8 13.6 143.0