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Forecast

Bogong Peaks Wilderness (35.5372°S, 148.3925°E, 1196m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Cloudy
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:47am EST 7:16am EST 4:59pm EST 5:28pm EST
    NOW
    1.5° Feels Like: -2.4°
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Dew: 1.5°
    Wind: S 11km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 4.4mm
    Pressure: &nbsp;
  3. Today Weather

    Bogong Peaks Wilderness
    Now
    -0.3°c
    Feels Like:
    &nbsp;
    Wind:
    S 26km/h
    Gusts:
    39km/h
    Humidity:
    &nbsp;
    Cloudy
     
    Min
    Max
    Today in Bogong Peaks Wilderness
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the Victorian border, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h turning SE 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning and afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.
    Tomorrow
    Frost then sunny
    Min
    Max
    Mostly sunny. The chance of morning frost. Winds SE 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 3 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Bogong Peaks Wilderness

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower near the Victorian border, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds SW 15 to 20 km/h turning SE 15 to 25 km/h in the late morning and afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15.

    Forecast for Bogong Peaks Wilderness (35.5372°S, 148.3925°E, 1196m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Cloudy Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Possible shower Showers Showers
    Minimum -1°
    Maximum
    Chance of rain 20% 10% 10% 20% 90% 90% 90%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 10-20mm 10-20mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low - - -
    Frost risk High High Severe High High Slight Moderate
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 24
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction S S SE SE ESE SW E NNW NE NNW N NE NE N
    Relative humidity 88% 82% 81% 76% 74% 73% 81% 73% 87% 88% 97% 100% 98% 96%
    Dew point 0°C 1°C -1°C 1°C -1°C 2°C 1°C 2°C 1°C 3°C 4°C 5°C 4°C 5°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Bogong Peaks Wilderness Rain Forecast


    Bogong Peaks Wilderness 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    HIGH
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Jul 1
    LOW
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 June to 2 July, 3 July to 7 July, and 18 July to 22 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 June to 28 June, and 21 July to 25 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 June to 27 June, 28 June to 2 July, and 3 July to 7 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Bogong Peaks Wilderness Rain Forecast


    Bogong Peaks Wilderness 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2021
    2022
    9
    6
    6
    8
    8
    8
    6
    9
    8
    7
    5
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral. IOD status: Neutral, although during the past three weeks it has been negative. SAM status: Positive. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, which is predicted to continue until at least October. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. although the last 3 weekly values have been negative.The negative value would need to continue for another 5 weeks for a negative IOD to be declared. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly value may enhance rainfall across central and southern Australia. A negative IOD is forecast during winter or early spring by 3 out of 5 climate models. However, the confidence in the IOD forecast at this time of the year is low, specifically because the models are showing a range of outcomes from mid winter onwards. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and much of TAS. The weekly negative IOD valuesmay be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from western TAS. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Bogong Peaks Wilderness Rain Forecast


    Bogong Peaks Wilderness 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    HIGH
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Jul 1
    LOW
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 June to 2 July, 3 July to 7 July, and 18 July to 22 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 June to 28 June, and 21 July to 25 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 June to 27 June, 28 June to 2 July, and 3 July to 7 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Bogong Peaks Wilderness Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jun 14
    1.3 °C 6.5 °C
    0.6 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 15
    1.6 °C 7.0 °C
    1.8 mm
    Wednesday
    Jun 16
    2.1 °C 5.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jun 17
    -2.1 °C 0.5 °C
    2.2 mm
    Friday
    Jun 18
    -0.7 °C 1.9 °C
    11.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Bogong Peaks Wilderness minimum temp history (35.5372°S, 148.3925°E, 1196m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 10.3° 02/06/2021 Coldest this month -2.4° 10/06/2021
    Hottest on record 15.0 05/06/2002 Coldest on record -7.0 11/06/2009
    Hottest this year 28.6° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year -4.1° 16/05/2021
    Long term average 5.5° Long term average 0.5°
    Average this month 4.3° Average this month 0.6°
    Hottest June On Record Avg. max. temp. 7.0° 1999 Coldest June on record Avg. min. temp. -0.9° 2007
    Bogong Peaks Wilderness rainfall history (35.5372°S, 148.3925°E, 1196m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 30.0mm 12/06/2021 Total This Month 106.0mm
    15.0 days
    Long Term Average 119.1mm 12.3 days Wettest June on record 292.2mm 2016
    Driest on record 12.0mm 2017
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Bogong Peaks Wilderness Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jun 521.9mm 53.5 day(s)
    Total For 2021 742.0mm 69.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 698.0mm 69.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 118.2mm Feb 6
    Lowest Temperature -4.1°C May16
    Highest Temperature 28.6°C Jan24
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Bogong Peaks Wilderness Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 21.5 20.6 17.6 13.0 8.5 5.5 3.9 4.9 8.7 12.4 15.9 18.6 12.5
    Mean Min (°C) 11.6 11.1 8.8 5.9 2.7 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 1.8 4.2 7.2 9.2 5.1
    Mean Rain (mm) 67.2 80.7 83.9 79.4 91.6 119.1 115.5 123.7 119.1 97.9 112.1 96.8 1158.9
    Mean Rain Days 7.7 7.6 8.0 7.9 10.0 12.3 14.7 13.9 12.3 10.8 10.3 9.2 122.3