Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 04:47 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
Weather Situation
Warm and dry westerly winds will result in elevated fire dangers across the northern and eastern parts of New South Wales.
For the rest of Friday 06 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Southern Ranges
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Bligh Park (33.6377°S, 150.7946°E, 17m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY16° 35° Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:11am EDT 5:39am EDT 7:56pm EDT 8:25pm EDT NOW30.7° Feels Like: 23.0° Relative Humidity: 17% Dew: 2.9° Wind: W 31km/h Gust: 44km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1005.7hPa -
Today Weather
Bligh ParkNow28.1°cFeels Like:26.9°Wind:SE 7km/hGusts:15km/hHumidity:34%16°Min35°MaxToday in Bligh ParkAreas of smoke, otherwise mostly sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h, with NE sea breezes developing near the coast in the afternoon. A southeasterly change 15 to 25 km/h in the early evening.Tomorrow15°Min33°MaxMostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Areas of smoke haze, particularly in the west. Winds S/SE 15 to 20 km/h becoming E/SE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Areas of smoke, otherwise mostly sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h, with NE sea breezes developing near the coast in the afternoon. A southeasterly change 15 to 25 km/h in the early evening.
Forecast for Bligh Park (33.6377°S, 150.7946°E, 17m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 16° 15° 15° 16° 15° 17° 15° Maximum 35° 33° 30° 34° 43° 27° 23° Chance of rain 10% 40% 10% 5% 40% 30% 60% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Very High Very High High Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 7
(km/h)22
(km/h)6
(km/h)12
(km/h)9
(km/h)20
(km/h)10
(km/h)19
(km/h)7
(km/h)17
(km/h)11
(km/h)21
(km/h)6
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction N W NE ENE ENE E NE ENE NE S S SE E ESE Relative humidity 42% 10% 61% 20% 69% 36% 67% 31% 55% 15% 61% 44% 66% 46% Dew point 12°C -0°C 14°C 7°C 16°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 17°C 11°C 13°C 14°C 14°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bligh Park Rain Forecast
Bligh Park 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
LOW28
29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bligh Park Rain Forecast
Bligh Park 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020136586665627105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bligh Park Rain Forecast
Bligh Park 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
LOW28
29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 5Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bligh Park Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0214.7 °C 24.2 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0312.1 °C 30.9 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0414.7 °C 33.7 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0510.6 °C 36.2 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0614.8 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bligh Park minimum temp history (33.6377°S, 150.7946°E, 17m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.0° 04/12/2019 Coldest this month 11.0° 05/12/2019 Hottest on record 43.7 21/12/1994 Coldest on record 7.0 07/12/2002 Hottest this year 41.4° 17/01/2019 Coldest this year -3.3° 15/08/2019 Long term average 28.7° Long term average 16.1° Average this month 29.1° Average this month 13.8° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.2° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 14.4° 1996 Bligh Park rainfall history (33.6377°S, 150.7946°E, 17m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 68.5mm 10.7 days Wettest December on record 229.4mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Bligh Park Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 758.9mm 120.8 day(s) Total For 2019 514.4mm 103.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 423.0mm 88.0 day(s) Wettest Day 55.6mm Sep18 Lowest Temperature -3.3°C Aug15 Highest Temperature 41.4°C Jan17 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Bligh Park Climatology
Bligh Park Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.1 29.2 27.0 24.0 20.8 18.0 17.6 19.7 22.7 25.3 27.1 28.7 24.2 Mean Min (°C) 17.7 17.8 15.7 11.6 7.6 5.2 3.7 4.5 8.1 11.0 14.2 16.1 11.1 Mean Rain (mm) 84.6 116.3 82.3 59.5 46.2 56.8 30.7 35.7 48.3 49.6 80.4 68.5 761.8 Mean Rain Days 11.9 11.6 11.7 10.2 10.5 10.7 8.7 6.7 7.7 8.7 11.7 10.7 115.8