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Forecast

Black Swamp (29.0167°S, 152.15°E, 871m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Thunderstorms 16° 22°
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:43am EDT 6:10am EDT 7:55pm EDT 8:21pm EDT
    NOW
    17.2° Feels Like: 17.6°
    Relative Humidity: 91%
    Dew: 15.7°
    Wind: ESE 7km/h
    Gust: 18km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 75.6mm
    Pressure: 1008.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Black Swamp
    Now
    16.3°c
    Feels Like:
    14.1°
    Wind:
    E 20km/h
    Gusts:
    28km/h
    Humidity:
    94%
    Thunderstorms
     
    16°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Black Swamp
    Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, possibly heavy at times. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E 15 to 25 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 24.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    17°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 20 with daytime temperatures reaching 22 to 28.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, possibly heavy at times. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E 15 to 25 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 24.

    Forecast for Black Swamp (29.0167°S, 152.15°E, 871m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Thunderstorms Possible shower Late shower Clearing shower Late shower Thunderstorms Thunderstorms
    Minimum 16° 17° 18° 19° 18° 20° 20°
    Maximum 22° 27° 30° 31° 32° 31° 29°
    Chance of rain 90% 70% 50% 20% 60% 80% 90%
    Likely amount 10-20mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 9
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E E NNE N N NNW NW WNW NW NW NNW NW WNW NW
    Relative humidity 96% 90% 87% 69% 80% 55% 80% 47% 70% 42% 75% 53% 78% 67%
    Dew point 18°C 21°C 19°C 20°C 20°C 20°C 20°C 19°C 19°C 17°C 21°C 21°C 21°C 22°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Black Swamp Rain Forecast


    Black Swamp 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    HIGH
    9
    HIGH
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Black Swamp Rain Forecast


    Black Swamp 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    4
    7
    6
    7
    7
    8
    7
    5
    6
    5
    5
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Black Swamp Rain Forecast


    Black Swamp 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    HIGH
    31
    LOW
    Feb 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    HIGH
    9
    HIGH
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 February to 12 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 January to 26 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Black Swamp Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jan 13
    14.2 °C 24.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 14
    14.3 °C 24.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 15
    17.0 °C 26.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jan 16
    16.9 °C 26.2 °C
    9.8 mm
    Friday
    Jan 17
    15.5 °C -
    14.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Black Swamp minimum temp history (29.0167°S, 152.15°E, 871m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 36.1° 05/01/2020 Coldest this month 13.8° 08/01/2020
    Hottest on record 38.3 08/01/1994 Coldest on record 4.5 12/01/1965
    Hottest this year 36.1° 05/01/2020 Coldest this year 13.8° 08/01/2020
    Long term average 26.7° Long term average 14.6°
    Average this month 30.0° Average this month 15.8°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.8° 1994 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 12.3° 1965
    Black Swamp rainfall history (29.0167°S, 152.15°E, 871m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 22.0mm 10/01/2020 Total This Month 47.2mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 114.9mm 10.4 days Wettest January on record 361.2mm 1994
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Black Swamp Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 114.9mm 10.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 47.2mm 4.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 56.0mm 2.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 22.0mm Jan10
    Lowest Temperature 13.8°C Jan 8
    Highest Temperature 36.1°C Jan 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Black Swamp Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.7 25.9 24.5 21.9 18.3 15.4 14.8 16.4 19.6 22.4 24.4 26.1 21.4
    Mean Min (°C) 14.6 14.5 12.6 8.6 5.1 2.4 0.8 1.6 4.5 7.8 10.7 12.9 8.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 114.9 93.8 80.9 47.2 48.7 49.9 53.5 43.7 50.3 75.7 85.2 105.1 848.0
    Mean Rain Days 10.4 9.8 9.8 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.3 6.5 6.4 8.0 8.7 9.8 97.7