Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 04:47 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
Weather Situation
Warm and dry westerly winds will result in elevated fire dangers across the northern and eastern parts of New South Wales.
For the rest of Friday 06 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Southern Ranges
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Bingie (36.0111°S, 150.1532°E, 14m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY13° 23° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:06am EDT 5:36am EDT 8:05pm EDT 8:34pm EDT NOW21.4° Feels Like: 19.2° Relative Humidity: 66% Dew: 14.8° Wind: ENE 19km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1006.3hPa -
Today Weather
BingieNow21.4°cFeels Like:19.2°Wind:ENE 19km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:66%13°Min23°MaxToday in BingiePartly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze in the north. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 23 to 28.Tomorrow13°Min22°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze in the north. Winds W/SW 15 to 25 km/h tending NE/SE in the early afternoon then tending N/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 14 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to high 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze in the north. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 23 to 28.
Forecast for Bingie (36.0111°S, 150.1532°E, 14m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 13° 13° 12° 14° 15° 13° 13° Maximum 23° 22° 22° 26° 26° 22° 22° Chance of rain 30% 20% 30% 5% 30% 50% 80% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 10
(km/h)24
(km/h)13
(km/h)22
(km/h)11
(km/h)21
(km/h)19
(km/h)33
(km/h)13
(km/h)23
(km/h)15
(km/h)21
(km/h)11
(km/h)20
(km/h)Wind direction ENE ESE ENE E SE ESE NE ENE N SSE S SSE ESE SE Relative humidity 68% 68% 65% 68% 66% 69% 67% 63% 55% 62% 64% 69% 69% 71% Dew point 15°C 16°C 14°C 16°C 14°C 16°C 16°C 19°C 14°C 17°C 13°C 16°C 14°C 16°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bingie Rain Forecast
Bingie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
LOW7
LOW8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
HIGH13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
LOW27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
MEDIUM30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bingie Rain Forecast
Bingie 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020346766771456105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bingie Rain Forecast
Bingie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
LOW7
LOW8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
HIGH13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
LOW27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
MEDIUM30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
LOW3
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bingie Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0214.1 °C 22.5 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 038.8 °C 27.6 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0414.2 °C 23.3 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0513.9 °C 34 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0614 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bingie minimum temp history (36.0111°S, 150.1532°E, 14m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.8° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 41.3 17/12/2009 Coldest on record 5.6 11/12/1966 Hottest this year 35.8° 31/01/2019 Coldest this year 3.0° 21/06/2019 Long term average 22.5° Long term average 14.9° Average this month 26.8° Average this month 12.7° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.3° 2016 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 12.4° 1964 Bingie rainfall history (36.0111°S, 150.1532°E, 14m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 74.1mm 11.0 days Wettest December on record 254.2mm 2016 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Bingie Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 952.5mm 114.9 day(s) Total For 2019 516.4mm 105.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 648.5mm 107.0 day(s) Wettest Day 58.6mm Mar18 Lowest Temperature 3.0°C Jun21 Highest Temperature 35.8°C Jan31 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Bingie Climatology
Bingie Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 23.7 23.8 23.1 21.4 19.0 16.8 16.3 17.1 18.7 20.1 21.1 22.5 20.3 Mean Min (°C) 16.4 16.6 15.3 12.5 9.7 7.5 6.2 6.8 8.7 11.0 13.1 14.9 11.5 Mean Rain (mm) 94.7 94.5 106.9 85.5 82.4 89.3 55.1 55.5 59.5 77.7 77.3 74.1 952.4 Mean Rain Days 11.0 10.2 10.8 9.3 8.6 8.6 7.5 7.5 9.2 10.3 10.9 11.0 113.9