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Forecast

Big Jacks Creek (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Windy 18° 26°
    Chance of rain: 10%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:51am EDT 6:16am EDT 7:09pm EDT 7:34pm EDT
    NOW
    18.1° Feels Like: 16.5°
    Relative Humidity: 67%
    Dew: 11.9°
    Wind: ESE 11km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 5.0mm
    Pressure: 1012.2hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Big Jacks Creek
    Now
    19.9°c
    Feels Like:
    18.9°
    Wind:
    S 13km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    72%
    Windy
     
    18°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Today in Big Jacks Creek
    Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm until the evening. Winds N 25 to 35 km/h shifting W/SW 25 to 40 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 33.
    Tomorrow
    Windy
    18°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Sunny. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 30.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm until the evening. Winds N 25 to 35 km/h shifting W/SW 25 to 40 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 33.

    Forecast for Big Jacks Creek (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Windy Sunny Windy Sunny Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 18° 10° 10°
    Maximum 26° 24° 25° 21° 24° 26° 26°
    Chance of rain 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 10%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 33
    (km/h)
    40
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NW WNW WSW WNW NNW WNW SSW SSW ESE S SE S NW WSW
    Relative humidity 57% 20% 35% 12% 25% 11% 42% 19% 56% 23% 54% 19% 48% 17%
    Dew point 12°C 1°C -1°C -8°C -3°C -7°C -1°C -4°C 5°C 1°C 7°C 0°C 6°C -0°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Big Jacks Creek Rain Forecast


    Big Jacks Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    Nov 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Big Jacks Creek Rain Forecast


    Big Jacks Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    3
    3
    6
    5
    6
    6
    7
    6
    8
    6
    4
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Big Jacks Creek Rain Forecast


    Big Jacks Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    Nov 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Big Jacks Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Oct 11
    - -
    -
    Saturday
    Oct 12
    - -
    -
    Sunday
    Oct 13
    - -
    -
    Monday
    Oct 14
    - -
    -
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    - -
    -
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Big Jacks Creek minimum temp history (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 40.1° 07/10/2019 Coldest this month 8.8° 09/10/2019
    Hottest on record 36.5 21/10/1988 Coldest on record -1.9 02/10/1982
    Hottest this year 41.6° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year -6.0° 22/06/2019
    Long term average 23.7° Long term average 8.0°
    Average this month 35.4° Average this month 13.9°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.0° 1965 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 5.8° 1986
    Big Jacks Creek rainfall history (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.0mm 08/10/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
    0.0 days
    Long Term Average 70.7mm 7.6 days Wettest October on record 207.2mm 1965
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Big Jacks Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 649.8mm 71.3 day(s)
    Total For 2019 247.3mm 55.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 309.2mm 55.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 62.0mm Mar31
    Lowest Temperature -6.0°C Jun22
    Highest Temperature 41.6°C Jan16
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Big Jacks Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 30.2 29.3 27.0 23.5 19.2 15.7 15.0 17.0 20.3 23.7 26.4 28.9 23.1
    Mean Min (°C) 15.0 14.7 12.2 8.1 4.8 3.2 1.8 2.3 4.8 8.0 10.9 13.3 8.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 88.4 74.6 61.5 51.3 52.2 69.0 62.4 61.2 58.5 70.7 75.6 89.4 814.9
    Mean Rain Days 7.2 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.6 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 84.4