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Forecast

Big Jacks Creek (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 15° 27°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:35am EDT 6:59am EDT 7:09pm EDT 7:33pm EDT
    NOW
    25.5° Feels Like: 24.5°
    Relative Humidity: 55%
    Dew: 15.8°
    Wind: NW 15km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1018.3hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Big Jacks Creek
    Now
    28.8°c
    Feels Like:
    29.0°
    Wind:
    S 15km/h
    Gusts:
    20km/h
    Humidity:
    54%
    Mostly sunny
     
    15°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Today in Big Jacks Creek
    Mostly sunny. Medium chance of showers on the slopes, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 28 to 35.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    18°
    Min
    24°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N/NE 20 to 30 km/h shifting S/SW in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 35.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Big Jacks Creek

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Medium chance of showers on the slopes, becoming less likely late this afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds E/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then tending E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 28 to 35.

    Forecast for Big Jacks Creek (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Mostly sunny Possible shower Windy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
    Minimum 15° 18° 12° 11° 12° 14° 14°
    Maximum 27° 24° 21° 23° 22° 23° 26°
    Chance of rain 20% 70% 10% 10% 40% 30% 60%
    Likely amount < 1mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index High Moderate High High High High High
    Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate High Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 7
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE WNW NNW WNW SSE SSE SE SSE SSE S SSE SSW ENE WSW
    Relative humidity 84% 51% 79% 80% 83% 56% 85% 52% 88% 57% 92% 62% 83% 51%
    Dew point 17°C 15°C 16°C 18°C 11°C 10°C 12°C 12°C 14°C 12°C 15°C 15°C 14°C 13°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Big Jacks Creek Rain Forecast


    Big Jacks Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Big Jacks Creek Rain Forecast


    Big Jacks Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    2024
    2025
    5
    7
    7
    7
    7
    8
    5
    5
    7
    8
    5
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Mar 5

    ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Big Jacks Creek Rain Forecast


    Big Jacks Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Big Jacks Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Mar 14
    11.7 °C 34.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Mar 15
    17.8 °C 21.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Mar 16
    15.4 °C 24.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Mar 17
    15.9 °C 26.2 °C
    2.4 mm
    Monday
    Mar 18
    16.6 °C -
    19.6 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Big Jacks Creek minimum temp history (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 33.5° 01/03/2024 Coldest this month 11.8° 05/03/2024
    Hottest on record 34.7 20/03/2015 Coldest on record 6.7 02/03/2008
    Hottest this year 34.6° 29/01/2024 Coldest this year 11.8° 05/03/2024
    Long term average 24.4° Long term average 14.2°
    Average this month 27.0° Average this month 15.6°
    Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.0° 2016 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 12.4° 2008
    Big Jacks Creek rainfall history (31.7731°S, 150.6156°E, 447m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 21.2mm 01/03/2024 Total This Month 43.8mm
    5.0 days
    Long Term Average 79.1mm 10.2 days Wettest March on record 155.0mm 2017
    Driest on record 12.6mm 2008
  15. Year to Date

    Big Jacks Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 217.6mm 27.5 day(s)
    Total For 2024 245.2mm 31.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2023 116.2mm 24.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 76.2mm Jan30
    Lowest Temperature 11.8°C Mar 5
    Highest Temperature 34.6°C Jan29
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Big Jacks Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.5 27.2 24.4 20.8 16.7 13.0 12.6 14.7 18.4 21.7 24.3 26.6 20.7
    Mean Min (°C) 16.6 15.7 14.2 11.2 8.1 5.9 5.0 5.8 8.5 11.0 13.0 14.8 10.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 69.6 68.9 79.1 32.4 34.7 66.3 47.5 42.3 46.2 55.7 86.8 83.6 718.2
    Mean Rain Days 8.8 8.5 10.2 8.8 9.0 13.4 11.2 8.5 7.1 9.0 10.0 10.2 114.6