Forecast
Bellbrook (30.8182°S, 152.5083°E, 78m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW15° 30° Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:11am EDT 5:39am EDT 7:48pm EDT 8:16pm EDT NOW19.3° Feels Like: 22.5° Relative Humidity: 98% Dew: 19.0° Wind: CAL 0km/h Gust: 0km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1009.9hPa -
Today Weather
BellbrookNow20.2°cFeels Like:23.5°Wind:CAL 0km/hGusts:0km/hHumidity:94%15°Min30°MaxToday in BellbrookPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the north, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 13 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 33.Tomorrow15°Min30°MaxMostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h shifting S/SE 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 30 to 35. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Bellbrook
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the north, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 13 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 33.
Forecast for Bellbrook (30.8182°S, 152.5083°E, 78m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary Minimum 15° 17° 15° 12° 13° 17° 17° Maximum 30° 35° 27° 28° 34° 31° 33° Chance of rain 40% 5% 5% 5% 50% 10% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 5
(km/h)14
(km/h)8
(km/h)24
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)4
(km/h)14
(km/h)9
(km/h)15
(km/h)9
(km/h)13
(km/h)6
(km/h)-
(km/h)Wind direction NE E WSW S SSW SE NNE ENE NNE ENE SSW SE NNE - Relative humidity 73% 58% 46% 39% 62% 48% 61% 45% 53% 37% 57% 50% 49% n/a Dew point 18°C 20°C 17°C 17°C 14°C 15°C 13°C 15°C 14°C 17°C 16°C 19°C 15°C n/a -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bellbrook Rain Forecast
Bellbrook 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
HIGH27
HIGH28
HIGH29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
MEDIUM9
10
11
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bellbrook Rain Forecast
Bellbrook 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020236676656648105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bellbrook Rain Forecast
Bellbrook 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT14
MEDIUM15
LOW16
17
18
19
20
LOW21
22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
HIGH27
HIGH28
HIGH29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
MEDIUM9
10
11
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bellbrook Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
Dec 1018.8 °C 34.5 °C 1.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1119.4 °C 30.2 °C 3.4 mmThursday
Dec 1219.5 °C 28.5 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 1318.0 °C 23.8 °C 1.8 mmSaturday
Dec 1418.9 °C 31 °C 1.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bellbrook minimum temp history (30.8182°S, 152.5083°E, 78m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 36.8° 06/12/2019 Coldest this month 4.3° 04/12/2019 Hottest on record 42.3 01/12/2004 Coldest on record 7.6 21/12/2010 Hottest this year 40.4° 07/10/2019 Coldest this year -4.1° 31/05/2019 Long term average 28.2° Long term average 16.3° Average this month 30.5° Average this month 14.4° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.8° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 14.1° 2006 Bellbrook rainfall history (30.8182°S, 152.5083°E, 78m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 3.4mm 11/12/2019 Total This Month 9.8mm
5.0 daysLong Term Average 101.7mm 14.2 days Wettest December on record 200.4mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Bellbrook Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1146.6mm 147.4 day(s) Total For 2019 334.0mm 107.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 813.2mm 131.0 day(s) Wettest Day 29.6mm Oct17 Lowest Temperature -4.1°C May31 Highest Temperature 40.4°C Oct 7 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Bellbrook Climatology
Bellbrook Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 29.3 28.8 27.4 25.2 22.4 20.2 19.9 21.6 24.4 25.8 26.9 28.2 25.0 Mean Min (°C) 17.8 18.0 16.4 13.1 8.6 6.7 5.0 5.3 8.2 10.9 14.5 16.3 11.7 Mean Rain (mm) 124.2 164.7 156.2 75.1 72.9 138.6 22.7 60.2 44.0 74.3 112.0 101.7 1149.8 Mean Rain Days 14.1 14.2 15.6 13.6 11.9 12.8 9.8 8.3 9.1 10.2 13.6 14.2 142.1