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Forecast

Balcolyn (33.0956°S, 151.5532°E, 20m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 14° 22°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:15am EST 5:40am EST 5:52pm EST 6:16pm EST
    NOW
    6.4° Feels Like: 5.4°
    Relative Humidity: 95%
    Dew: 5.7°
    Wind: N 0km/h
    Gust: 2km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1014.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Balcolyn
    Now
    12.0°c
    Feels Like:
    9.4°
    Wind:
    NW 7km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    61%
    Sunny
     
    14°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Balcolyn
    Mostly sunny. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 22.
    Tomorrow
    Windy with showers
    15°
    Min
    24°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N/NW 25 to 40 km/h in the morning then tending W/NW in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 19 and 25.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 22.

    Forecast for Balcolyn (33.0956°S, 151.5532°E, 20m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Sunny Windy with showers Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 14° 15° 11° 12° 14° 16° 16°
    Maximum 22° 24° 19° 17° 18° 20° 22°
    Chance of rain 5% 90% 10% 30% 20% 40% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index High High Moderate High High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W W NNE NNW WNW W WSW S SSW ESE ENE E NNE NNE
    Relative humidity 51% 38% 53% 43% 49% 39% 53% 52% 62% 57% 65% 63% 68% 66%
    Dew point 7°C 6°C 10°C 9°C 5°C 4°C 5°C 6°C 10°C 8°C 12°C 11°C 13°C 14°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Balcolyn Rain Forecast


    Balcolyn 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    LOW
    Oct 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep23

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 September to 3 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Balcolyn Rain Forecast


    Balcolyn 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    2020
    2021
    5
    7
    7
    7
    7
    7
    7
    1
    7
    2
    7
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Sep 9

    ENSO status: La Niña Alert IOD status: Negative SAM status: Negative trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to cool through August, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.5. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 9.8 in the same month, a significant increase compared to July, tipping over the La Niña threshold of +7. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific during the Austral spring, with a high chance of a weak La Niña forming. All eight international models continue to suggest further cooling during spring, with three of these indicating La Niña conditions in September. A further two exceeding the La Niña threshold in October, with six of the eight indicating La Niña by November. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 57:41 chance for La Niña:Neutral conditions by the end of the Australspring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has shifted into a negative phase. Four of the six international models indicate a negative IOD to be sustained for the duration of the Austral spring, with the remaining two indicating a neutral phase. Both of the models that indicate a neutral phase trend towards the negative side of neutral. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short term outlook favours above average rainfall over the interior over the remainder of the first month of spring, particularly eastern WA and the Kimberley, western NT and western SA Above average rainfall is also favoured, although not as pronounced, over inland NSW and QLD and parts of the NSW and VIC coastal area. Drier than average conditions are expected across western WA as well as parts of northern coastal QLD and parts of the southeast. The remainder of spring is then likely to be wetter than average for NSW, QLD, VIC, SA, TAS, the NT and eastern WA, whilst drier than averageconditions look to persist further west. There are then indications of increased rainfall over WA toward the end of spring and into early summer, with the eastern two thirds of the country remaining wetter than average.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Balcolyn Rain Forecast


    Balcolyn 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    LOW
    Oct 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Sep23

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 September to 3 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Balcolyn Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Sep 19
    14.3 °C 23.7 °C
    0.2 mm
    Sunday
    Sep 20
    15.5 °C 23.6 °C
    2.6 mm
    Monday
    Sep 21
    10.7 °C 28.2 °C
    4.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Sep 22
    16.1 °C 27.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Sep 23
    7.6 °C 24.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Balcolyn minimum temp history (33.0956°S, 151.5532°E, 20m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 29.7° 17/09/2020 Coldest this month 10.8° 02/09/2020
    Hottest on record 33.5 26/09/2013 Coldest on record 6.1 06/09/1995
    Hottest this year 40.7° 23/01/2020 Coldest this year 5.9° 06/08/2020
    Long term average 21.0° Long term average 12.8°
    Average this month 22.7° Average this month 14.4°
    Hottest September On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.9° 2013 Coldest September on record Avg. min. temp. 11.9° 1995
    Balcolyn rainfall history (33.0956°S, 151.5532°E, 20m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 10.4mm 05/09/2020 Total This Month 35.8mm
    11.0 days
    Long Term Average 72.7mm 11.5 days Wettest September on record 169.2mm 1995
    Driest on record 4.0mm 2003
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Balcolyn Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Sep 993.9mm 110.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 1151.4mm 121.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 958.2mm 125.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 94.8mm Feb 7
    Lowest Temperature 5.9°C Aug 6
    Highest Temperature 40.7°C Jan23
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Balcolyn Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.1 26.0 25.1 22.9 20.3 18.0 17.3 18.8 21.0 22.7 23.7 24.9 22.2
    Mean Min (°C) 19.7 20.0 18.9 15.9 13.1 11.1 9.7 10.5 12.8 14.8 16.8 18.4 15.1
    Mean Rain (mm) 89.7 115.3 123.8 139.3 141.7 148.4 89.4 73.6 72.7 58.4 96.3 70.3 1223.3
    Mean Rain Days 12.3 12.0 13.3 13.8 13.6 13.5 11.4 9.0 11.5 10.5 12.5 11.3 140.7