Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 04:47 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
Weather Situation
Warm and dry westerly winds will result in elevated fire dangers across the northern and eastern parts of New South Wales.
For the rest of Friday 06 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Southern Ranges
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Balarang (34.5924°S, 150.8505°E, 27m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY17° 27° Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:08am EDT 5:37am EDT 7:59pm EDT 8:28pm EDT NOW22.0° Feels Like: 20.7° Relative Humidity: 74% Dew: 17.2° Wind: NE 19km/h Gust: 22km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1005.5hPa -
Today Weather
BalarangNow21.4°cFeels Like:19.5°Wind:N 20km/hGusts:22km/hHumidity:72%17°Min27°MaxToday in BalarangMostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze, thick at times. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h shifting E/SE 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon and evening then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 33.Tomorrow17°Min24°MaxMostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Slight chance of a shower, most likely in the evening. Light winds becoming NW/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 32. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze, thick at times. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h shifting E/SE 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon and evening then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 33.
Forecast for Balarang (34.5924°S, 150.8505°E, 27m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 17° 17° 17° 18° 18° 17° 16° Maximum 27° 24° 23° 25° 31° 21° 20° Chance of rain 30% 40% 20% 10% 20% 50% 50% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Very High Very High Extreme Very High Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 11
(km/h)24
(km/h)11
(km/h)27
(km/h)15
(km/h)26
(km/h)22
(km/h)32
(km/h)14
(km/h)24
(km/h)20
(km/h)27
(km/h)12
(km/h)24
(km/h)Wind direction N WNW ENE E NE E NNE ENE NNE ESE SSW SSE SE ESE Relative humidity 41% 37% 54% 58% 64% 65% 61% 58% 44% 45% 57% 63% 64% 66% Dew point 12°C 11°C 13°C 15°C 14°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 17°C 12°C 13°C 13°C 14°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Balarang Rain Forecast
Balarang 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
LOW8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
26
LOW27
LOW28
29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Balarang Rain Forecast
Balarang 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020236566771617105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Balarang Rain Forecast
Balarang 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
LOW8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
MEDIUM15
16
17
18
19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
26
LOW27
LOW28
29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
3
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Balarang Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0214.4 °C 22.7 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 0314.3 °C 29.1 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0415.9 °C 30.3 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0512.6 °C 35 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0612 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Balarang minimum temp history (34.5924°S, 150.8505°E, 27m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 35.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 12.0° 06/12/2019 Hottest on record 39.4 13/12/2016 Coldest on record 6.1 06/12/2012 Hottest this year 39.8° 31/01/2019 Coldest this year -1.1° 24/08/2019 Long term average 25.5° Long term average 15.2° Average this month 28.0° Average this month 13.6° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.1° 2016 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 13.9° 2011 Balarang rainfall history (34.5924°S, 150.8505°E, 27m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.2mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.2mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 69.3mm 11.7 days Wettest December on record 171.8mm 2016 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Balarang Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 961.4mm 122.7 day(s) Total For 2019 594.6mm 79.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 588.4mm 114.0 day(s) Wettest Day 58.0mm Jan 6 Lowest Temperature -1.1°C Aug24 Highest Temperature 39.8°C Jan31 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Balarang Climatology
Balarang Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.9 26.3 25.2 23.2 20.6 18.1 17.6 18.8 21.3 23.1 24.0 25.5 22.5 Mean Min (°C) 16.9 17.2 15.6 12.1 8.8 7.2 6.3 6.5 8.6 10.7 13.4 15.2 11.5 Mean Rain (mm) 74.6 144.8 122.4 79.7 59.8 102.7 56.2 57.5 45.6 67.6 81.2 69.3 960.5 Mean Rain Days 11.1 11.9 12.1 11.4 8.1 9.9 7.8 7.9 8.4 9.7 12.7 11.7 116.3