Forecast
Spence (35.1996°S, 149.0622°E, 669m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW11° 19° heavy showers Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 10-20mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:50am EDT 6:18am EDT 8:14pm EDT 8:42pm EDT NOW13.9° Feels Like: 13.2° Relative Humidity: 97% Dew: 13.4° Wind: S 9km/h Gust: 9km/h Rainfall since 9am: 12.0mm Pressure: 1022.5hPa -
Today Weather
SpenceNow12.8°cFeels Like: Wind:SE 39km/hGusts:41km/hHumidity: 11°Min19°MaxToday in SpenceCloudy. Very high chance of showers. Heavy falls possible. Light winds.Tomorrow11°Min19°MaxCloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming NW 20 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Spence
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. Heavy falls possible. Light winds.
Forecast for Spence (35.1996°S, 149.0622°E, 669m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 11° 14° 14° 13° 16° 9° 10° Maximum 19° 27° 27° 29° 24° 26° 25° Chance of rain 90% 80% 40% 60% 60% 30% 60% Likely amount 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 5-10mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)19
(km/h)11
(km/h)24
(km/h)9
(km/h)18
(km/h)8
(km/h)17
(km/h)19
(km/h)28
(km/h)8
(km/h)19
(km/h)8
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction ESE ENE NNW NW E ENE E NNE NNW NW N NNW E NNE Relative humidity 86% 83% 84% 63% 79% 53% 74% 44% 74% 50% 66% 40% 69% 41% Dew point 13°C 14°C 16°C 18°C 16°C 16°C 15°C 14°C 16°C 11°C 10°C 10°C 10°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Spence Rain Forecast
Spence 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMFeb 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
19
LOW20
21
MEDIUM22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Spence Rain Forecast
Spence 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021987777844355105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Spence Rain Forecast
Spence 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMFeb 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
6
MEDIUM7
LOW8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
LOW13
14
LOW15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
19
LOW20
21
MEDIUM22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
LOW25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Spence Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2413.7 °C 37.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2515.6 °C 38.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2618.1 °C 32.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2716.7 °C 20.1 °C 5.0 mmThursday
Jan 2815.9 °C 17.9 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Spence minimum temp history (35.1996°S, 149.0622°E, 669m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 38.0° 25/01/2021 Coldest this month 4.8° 17/01/2021 Hottest on record 42.0 18/01/2013 Coldest on record 1.6 12/01/2012 Hottest this year 38.0° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year 4.8° 17/01/2021 Long term average 30.8° Long term average 14.4° Average this month 28.5° Average this month 12.0° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.3° 2013 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 10.4° 1957 Spence rainfall history (35.1996°S, 149.0622°E, 669m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 7.2mm 04/01/2021 Total This Month 26.4mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 46.3mm 6.9 days Wettest January on record 218.4mm 1995 Driest on record 4.8mm 2014 -
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Year to Date
Spence Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 46.3mm 6.9 day(s) Total For 2021 26.4mm 7.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 16.0mm 8.0 day(s) Wettest Day 7.2mm Jan 4 Lowest Temperature 4.8°C Jan17 Highest Temperature 38.0°C Jan25 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Spence Climatology
Spence Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.8 28.2 25.2 21.0 16.6 13.4 12.8 14.0 17.8 21.6 25.3 27.6 21.2 Mean Min (°C) 14.4 13.6 11.2 7.1 2.3 1.1 -0.0 0.9 3.0 6.2 9.8 12.2 6.8 Mean Rain (mm) 46.3 66.1 63.3 35.7 26.4 45.8 32.0 46.4 50.5 49.1 66.0 75.0 600.4 Mean Rain Days 6.9 8.1 8.8 7.4 6.4 11.5 11.3 9.7 7.9 8.9 8.7 9.0 104.9