Forecast
Belconnen (35.2362°S, 149.0673°E, 580m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY12° 28° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:12am EDT 5:41am EDT 8:07pm EDT 8:36pm EDT NOW25.4° Feels Like: 17.1° Relative Humidity: 15% Dew: -3.1° Wind: WNW 30km/h Gust: 35km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1007.9hPa -
Today Weather
BelconnenNow26.3°cFeels Like:20.7°Wind:NW 17km/hGusts:24km/hHumidity:15%12°Min28°MaxToday in BelconnenMostly sunny, just some high cloud at times. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h, becoming light in the evening.Tomorrow9°Min30°MaxSunny. Light winds becoming W 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day then shifting E 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Belconnen
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny, just some high cloud at times. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h, becoming light in the evening.
Forecast for Belconnen (35.2362°S, 149.0673°E, 580m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 12° 9° 11° 13° 15° 12° 11° Maximum 28° 30° 32° 36° 37° 30° 26° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 30% 30% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 20
(km/h)32
(km/h)11
(km/h)28
(km/h)7
(km/h)13
(km/h)9
(km/h)23
(km/h)12
(km/h)29
(km/h)13
(km/h)22
(km/h)12
(km/h)26
(km/h)Wind direction WNW W WNW W ESE NNE NE NW NW WNW E N N WNW Relative humidity 28% 12% 28% 11% 51% 18% 53% 12% 22% 7% 44% 17% 48% 15% Dew point 2°C -4°C 1°C -3°C 9°C 5°C 12°C 2°C 4°C -4°C 7°C 2°C 7°C -2°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Belconnen Rain Forecast
Belconnen 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
3
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Belconnen Rain Forecast
Belconnen 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020245764763436105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Belconnen Rain Forecast
Belconnen 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWJan 1
LOW2
3
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Belconnen Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 027.4 °C 15.1 °C 0.6 mmTuesday
Dec 038.5 °C 20.8 °C 0.6 mmWednesday
Dec 0412.6 °C 24.1 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 0511.2 °C 28.2 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0615.7 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Belconnen minimum temp history (35.2362°S, 149.0673°E, 580m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 28.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 4.6° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 39.2 21/12/1994 Coldest on record 0.3 06/12/2012 Hottest this year 41.6° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year -5.2° 23/08/2019 Long term average 26.2° Long term average 11.4° Average this month 21.9° Average this month 10.0° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.7° 1972 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 8.3° 1956 Belconnen rainfall history (35.2362°S, 149.0673°E, 580m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.6mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 1.2mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 56.0mm 8.0 days Wettest December on record 215.2mm 1972 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Belconnen Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 618.2mm 109.3 day(s) Total For 2019 358.6mm 81.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 362.6mm 79.0 day(s) Wettest Day 45.2mm Mar30 Lowest Temperature -5.2°C Aug23 Highest Temperature 41.6°C Jan16 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Belconnen Climatology
Belconnen Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.1 27.1 24.5 20.0 15.6 12.3 11.4 13.1 16.3 19.5 22.9 26.2 19.7 Mean Min (°C) 13.2 13.1 10.7 6.6 3.0 1.0 -0.1 1.0 3.2 6.0 8.8 11.4 6.4 Mean Rain (mm) 57.6 58.4 52.7 45.0 42.9 40.9 40.9 45.7 52.1 61.4 64.6 56.0 618.0 Mean Rain Days 7.3 7.0 7.1 7.4 8.5 10.9 11.5 11.4 10.3 10.2 9.7 8.0 109.0