Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for North Central, North East, Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 04:50 AM EST on Wednesday 24 April 2024
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
North Central, North East, Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and southwesterly winds are expected during Wednesday. Areas likely to be affected include the West and South Gippsland forecast district and parts of the North Central, North East and Central forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
Cancellation of Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
South West forecast district
The Warning to Sheep Graziers for the South West forecast district has been cancelled.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EST Wednesday.
Forecast
Cowleys Creek (38.4833°S, 143.0544°E, 78m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY12° 13° possible shower Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:37am EST 7:05am EST 5:48pm EST 6:15pm EST NOW9.0° Feels Like: 5.5° Relative Humidity: 100% Dew: 9.0° Wind: SW 17km/h Gust: 19km/h Rainfall since 9am: 6.0mm Pressure: 1036.4hPa -
Today Weather
Cowleys CreekNow11.4°cFeels Like:5.7°Wind:SW 26km/hGusts:32km/hHumidity:74%12°Min13°MaxToday in Cowleys CreekPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers near the Otways, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h turning W 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 7 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.Tomorrow12°Min13°MaxCloudy. The chance of fog in the NW in the early morning. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds W 15 to 20 km/h turning SW 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers near the Otways, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h turning W 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 7 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.
Forecast for Cowleys Creek (38.4833°S, 143.0544°E, 78m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 12° 12° 9° 8° 11° 11° Maximum 13° 13° 14° 14° 16° 14° 14° Chance of rain 90% 60% 30% 20% 80% 60% 60% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate No Rating - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 25
(km/h)24
(km/h)23
(km/h)20
(km/h)12
(km/h)13
(km/h)8
(km/h)10
(km/h)12
(km/h)14
(km/h)18
(km/h)20
(km/h)18
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction SW WSW SW WSW SW SW N W N WNW WSW SW S S Relative humidity 63% 60% 72% 67% 72% 69% 79% 65% 75% 56% 76% 63% 62% 61% Dew point 6°C 5°C 8°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 7°C 6°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Cowleys Creek Rain Forecast
Cowleys Creek 12-month Rainfall ForecastAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar202420256464565107966105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Apr 23
ENSO status: Inactive/Neutral. El Niño ended. IOD status: Neutral, becoming strongly positive. SAM status: Leading to neutral and returning positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is presently in an inactive phase, for the first time since August 2021. Ocean cooling continues over the eastern Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures approach near-normal conditions. Warmer than normal waters are present across the western Pacific Ocean, including the Coral Sea with added moisture and humidity to influence weather conditions in the eastern regions of Australia. The atmosphere continues to be firmly neutral after weakening early in the year with 3 out of 7 global models forecasting a La Niña to develop this coming winter season. A neutral ENSO typically has no significant impact on Australian rainfall during winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase, although record-high ocean temperatures across the northwest Indian Ocean have the IOD index just tipping into a positivethreshold value. Persistent southeasterly winds over the eastern Indian Ocean during the previous month are forecast to ease with below-average wind speeds to develop off northwest Australia and the eastern Indian Ocean during the winter season. All international models are suggesting the IOD will strengthen into a strong positive phase over the next 2-3 months, with significant upwelling to start near Indonesia possibly following May. A positive IOD reduces the number of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia during winter and spring, thus reducing rainfall across central and southeastern parts of Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive (mid-April) with the outlook favouring a neutral phase forecast in May and then the likelihood of returning to a positive phase during winter. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. A positive SAM also reduces the impact of cold fronts and decreases the rainfall over southernAustralia. Rainfall outlooks are showing above-average rainfall over winter for WA and central and northern SA, and eastern regions of QLD and NSW. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected for western TAS, southern SA, and most of VIC.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Cowleys Creek Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Apr 1910.2 °C 17.1 °C 5.0 mmSaturday
Apr 202.8 °C 16.4 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Apr 212.7 °C 17.8 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Apr 221.0 °C 24.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Apr 234.7 °C 26.6 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Cowleys Creek minimum temp history (38.4833°S, 143.0544°E, 78m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 26.6° 01/04/2024 Coldest this month 1.0° 22/04/2024 Hottest on record 36.9 01/04/2014 Coldest on record -2.5 27/04/1996 Hottest this year 39.8° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year 1.0° 22/04/2024 Long term average 20.0° Long term average 8.1° Average this month 18.9° Average this month 8.4° Hottest April On Record Avg. max. temp. 23.4° 2005 Coldest April on record Avg. min. temp. 6.0° 1993 Cowleys Creek rainfall history (38.4833°S, 143.0544°E, 78m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 31.2mm 02/04/2024 Total This Month 50.4mm
12.0 daysLong Term Average 43.0mm 14.2 days Wettest April on record 117.2mm 2017 Driest on record 11.6mm 2013 -
Year to Date
Cowleys Creek Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Apr 143.8mm 40.0 day(s) Total For 2024 112.8mm 32.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 168.8mm 39.0 day(s) Wettest Day 31.2mm Apr 2 Lowest Temperature 1.0°C Apr22 Highest Temperature 39.8°C Mar 9 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Cowleys Creek Climatology
Cowleys Creek Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.3 26.2 24.0 20.0 16.2 13.6 13.0 13.9 15.9 18.2 20.9 23.6 19.3 Mean Min (°C) 11.2 11.4 10.0 8.1 6.6 5.0 4.6 4.8 5.7 6.5 8.1 9.3 7.6 Mean Rain (mm) 37.4 30.9 32.5 43.0 58.5 56.8 61.7 65.9 57.7 55.6 49.0 40.6 589.9 Mean Rain Days 7.8 7.3 10.7 14.2 17.9 18.6 20.2 19.3 18.5 16.9 12.7 11.2 175.8