Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for South East forecast district
Issued at 05:03 AM EST on Monday 29 April 2024
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
South East forecast district
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and strong westerly winds are expected during Monday. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the South East forecast district. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EST Monday.
Forecast
Geilston Bay (42.8364°S, 147.351°E, 6m AMSL) set as my default location ›
-
My MLA
-
Current condition
TODAY11° 16° mostly cloudy Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:30am EST 6:59am EST 5:16pm EST 5:46pm EST NOW13.8° Feels Like: 9.5° Relative Humidity: 57% Dew: 5.4° Wind: NW 17km/h Gust: 30km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1011.1hPa -
Today Weather
Geilston BayNow14.7°cFeels Like:7.5°Wind:W 33km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:59%11°Min16°MaxToday in Geilston BayCloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere, becoming less likely this afternoon. Snow falling above 800 metres. Possible hail in the far S in the late morning. Winds W 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 9 and 16.Tomorrow8°Min15°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers in the S, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Winds W/SW 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15. -
Radar
-
Popup Radar
-
Warnings
-
7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere, becoming less likely this afternoon. Snow falling above 800 metres. Possible hail in the far S in the late morning. Winds W 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 9 and 16.
Forecast for Geilston Bay (42.8364°S, 147.351°E, 6m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 11° 8° 7° 7° 8° 7° 6° Maximum 16° 15° 17° 15° 15° 16° 16° Chance of rain 20% 30% 5% 20% 50% 40% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)25
(km/h)19
(km/h)19
(km/h)13
(km/h)16
(km/h)14
(km/h)17
(km/h)12
(km/h)15
(km/h)10
(km/h)14
(km/h)10
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction W WSW WSW SW WNW SW W SSW W S WSW SSE W S Relative humidity 58% 40% 63% 56% 68% 48% 68% 55% 70% 59% 72% 57% 73% 53% Dew point 5°C 1°C 5°C 5°C 6°C 5°C 5°C 5°C 6°C 6°C 6°C 6°C 6°C 5°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
-
12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Geilston Bay Rain Forecast
Geilston Bay 12-month Rainfall ForecastAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar20242025966567665767105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Apr 23
ENSO status: Inactive/Neutral. El Niño ended. IOD status: Neutral, becoming strongly positive. SAM status: Leading to neutral and returning positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is presently in an inactive phase, for the first time since August 2021. Ocean cooling continues over the eastern Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures approach near-normal conditions. Warmer than normal waters are present across the western Pacific Ocean, including the Coral Sea with added moisture and humidity to influence weather conditions in the eastern regions of Australia. The atmosphere continues to be firmly neutral after weakening early in the year with 3 out of 7 global models forecasting a La Niña to develop this coming winter season. A neutral ENSO typically has no significant impact on Australian rainfall during winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase, although record-high ocean temperatures across the northwest Indian Ocean have the IOD index just tipping into a positivethreshold value. Persistent southeasterly winds over the eastern Indian Ocean during the previous month are forecast to ease with below-average wind speeds to develop off northwest Australia and the eastern Indian Ocean during the winter season. All international models are suggesting the IOD will strengthen into a strong positive phase over the next 2-3 months, with significant upwelling to start near Indonesia possibly following May. A positive IOD reduces the number of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia during winter and spring, thus reducing rainfall across central and southeastern parts of Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive (mid-April) with the outlook favouring a neutral phase forecast in May and then the likelihood of returning to a positive phase during winter. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. A positive SAM also reduces the impact of cold fronts and decreases the rainfall over southernAustralia. Rainfall outlooks are showing above-average rainfall over winter for WA and central and northern SA, and eastern regions of QLD and NSW. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected for western TAS, southern SA, and most of VIC.
-
Popup - Daily historical
-
Long range rainfall forecast
-
Past 5 Days
Geilston Bay Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Apr 248.6 °C 15.5 °C 4.0 mmThursday
Apr 259.7 °C 15.1 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Apr 269.0 °C 19.5 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Apr 277.1 °C 18.7 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Apr 288.3 °C 19.3 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Geilston Bay minimum temp history (42.8364°S, 147.351°E, 6m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 24.2° 14/04/2024 Coldest this month 6.4° 17/04/2024 Hottest on record 31.0 01/04/2014 Coldest on record 0.7 24/04/1888 Hottest this year 35.5° 22/02/2024 Coldest this year 6.4° 17/04/2024 Long term average 17.4° Long term average 9.1° Average this month 19.1° Average this month 9.8° Hottest April On Record Avg. max. temp. 20.4° 2016 Coldest April on record Avg. min. temp. 6.6° 1944 Geilston Bay rainfall history (42.8364°S, 147.351°E, 6m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 18.0mm 03/04/2024 Total This Month 36.8mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 50.8mm 12.4 days Wettest April on record 247.8mm 1960 Driest on record 1.8mm 1904 -
Year to Date
Geilston Bay Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Apr 179.6mm 43.4 day(s) Total For 2024 85.6mm 28.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 119.0mm 39.0 day(s) Wettest Day 18.0mm Apr 3 Lowest Temperature 6.4°C Apr17 Highest Temperature 35.5°C Feb22 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
- Giles
- Gladstone
-
Popup - Monthly historical
-
Climatology
Climate History
Geilston Bay Climatology
Geilston Bay Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.8 21.7 20.2 17.4 14.6 12.1 11.9 13.2 15.2 17.0 18.8 20.4 17.0 Mean Min (°C) 12.1 12.1 11.0 9.1 7.0 5.2 4.7 5.2 6.5 7.8 9.4 10.9 8.4 Mean Rain (mm) 44.6 39.6 44.6 50.8 46.4 52.6 51.8 54.2 52.7 62.8 53.0 56.2 609.5 Mean Rain Days 10.5 9.2 11.3 12.4 13.9 14.9 15.9 15.9 15.2 16.1 14.1 12.7 162.3