Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for South East forecast district
Issued at 10:54 PM EST on Sunday 28 April 2024
Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
South East forecast district
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and strong westerly winds are expected during Monday. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the South East forecast district. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday.
Forecast
Blackmans Bay (42.9989°S, 147.3189°E, 49m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW11° 15° wind and showers easing Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:30am EST 6:59am EST 5:16pm EST 5:45pm EST NOW15.6° Feels Like: 9.8° Relative Humidity: 50% Dew: 5.2° Wind: NW 24km/h Gust: 37km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1010.9hPa -
Today Weather
Blackmans BayNow14.6°cFeels Like:9.3°Wind:N 20km/hGusts:28km/hHumidity:48%11°Min15°MaxToday in Blackmans BayPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 800 metres. Possible hail in the far S in the late morning. Winds NW 35 to 50 km/h turning W early in the morning then decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 16.Tomorrow11°Min15°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers in the S, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Winds W/SW 25 to 40 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 15. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, medium chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 800 metres. Possible hail in the far S in the late morning. Winds NW 35 to 50 km/h turning W early in the morning then decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 16.
Forecast for Blackmans Bay (42.9989°S, 147.3189°E, 49m AMSL) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Summary Minimum 11° 8° 8° 8° 9° 8° 8° Maximum 15° 15° 16° 15° 15° 16° 15° Chance of rain 30% 70% 5% 40% 50% 30% 30% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Fire Danger Rating High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 23
(km/h)31
(km/h)21
(km/h)26
(km/h)12
(km/h)21
(km/h)13
(km/h)19
(km/h)9
(km/h)13
(km/h)6
(km/h)11
(km/h)6
(km/h)14
(km/h)Wind direction W WSW WSW SW W SW W SW W SSW W SSE W S Relative humidity 61% 46% 66% 60% 68% 56% 68% 60% 72% 61% 73% 60% 73% 61% Dew point 5°C 1°C 6°C 6°C 6°C 6°C 6°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Blackmans Bay Rain Forecast
Blackmans Bay 12-month Rainfall ForecastAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar20242025966567665767105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Apr 23
ENSO status: Inactive/Neutral. El Niño ended. IOD status: Neutral, becoming strongly positive. SAM status: Leading to neutral and returning positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is presently in an inactive phase, for the first time since August 2021. Ocean cooling continues over the eastern Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures approach near-normal conditions. Warmer than normal waters are present across the western Pacific Ocean, including the Coral Sea with added moisture and humidity to influence weather conditions in the eastern regions of Australia. The atmosphere continues to be firmly neutral after weakening early in the year with 3 out of 7 global models forecasting a La Niña to develop this coming winter season. A neutral ENSO typically has no significant impact on Australian rainfall during winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase, although record-high ocean temperatures across the northwest Indian Ocean have the IOD index just tipping into a positivethreshold value. Persistent southeasterly winds over the eastern Indian Ocean during the previous month are forecast to ease with below-average wind speeds to develop off northwest Australia and the eastern Indian Ocean during the winter season. All international models are suggesting the IOD will strengthen into a strong positive phase over the next 2-3 months, with significant upwelling to start near Indonesia possibly following May. A positive IOD reduces the number of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia during winter and spring, thus reducing rainfall across central and southeastern parts of Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive (mid-April) with the outlook favouring a neutral phase forecast in May and then the likelihood of returning to a positive phase during winter. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. A positive SAM also reduces the impact of cold fronts and decreases the rainfall over southernAustralia. Rainfall outlooks are showing above-average rainfall over winter for WA and central and northern SA, and eastern regions of QLD and NSW. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected for western TAS, southern SA, and most of VIC.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Blackmans Bay Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Wednesday
Apr 249.2 °C 14.9 °C 6.2 mmThursday
Apr 2510.4 °C 14.5 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Apr 2611.4 °C 18.4 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Apr 279.2 °C 17.3 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Apr 287.4 °C 17.6 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Blackmans Bay minimum temp history (42.9989°S, 147.3189°E, 49m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 22.6° 14/04/2024 Coldest this month 7.4° 28/04/2024 Hottest on record Coldest on record Hottest this year 31.0° 09/03/2024 Coldest this year 7.4° 28/04/2024 Long term average 17.8° Long term average 10.4° Average this month 18.5° Average this month 10.4° Hottest - On Record Avg. max. temp. - - Coldest - on record Avg. min. temp. - - Blackmans Bay rainfall history (42.9989°S, 147.3189°E, 49m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 10.2mm 03/04/2024 Total This Month 25.0mm
7.0 daysLong Term Average 33.8mm 11.5 days Wettest - on record - - Driest on record 10.8mm 2016 -
Year to Date
Blackmans Bay Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Apr 134.8mm 38.9 day(s) Total For 2024 76.8mm 33.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 152.8mm 38.0 day(s) Wettest Day 12.6mm Jan18 Lowest Temperature 7.4°C Apr28 Highest Temperature 31.0°C Mar 9 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Blackmans Bay Climatology
Blackmans Bay Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 22.1 21.5 20.3 17.8 15.0 13.0 12.8 13.2 15.1 16.7 18.3 20.3 17.1 Mean Min (°C) 13.5 13.2 12.4 10.4 8.5 7.1 6.5 6.3 7.6 8.7 10.2 11.7 9.7 Mean Rain (mm) 32.6 27.8 40.6 33.8 51.5 51.5 41.9 50.5 37.7 56.9 44.7 42.9 522.7 Mean Rain Days 7.8 9.2 10.4 11.5 13.6 13.7 14.5 15.5 14.0 13.8 13.7 11.4 149.2