Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Minor To Moderate Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Nsw)
Issued at 11:13 AM EST on Tuesday 23 April 2024
Flood Warning Number: 13
MODERATE FLOOD PEAK RECORDED AT BARRINGUN LATE SUNDAY, RIVER LEVELS EASING
MINOR FLOOD PEAK EXPECTED AT ENNGONIA TUESDAY MORNING
MODERATE FLOODING LIKELY AT FORDS BRIDGE BYWASH FROM LATE THURSDAY, WITH MODERATE FLOOD PEAK POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
Floodwaters from the upper reaches of the Warrego River in Queensland have moved into New South Wales. The Queensland flood warning for the Warrego River has been finalised.
Minor flooding is expected to be occurring at Enngonia, with a minor flood peak expected Tuesday morning.
Further downstream minor flooding is rising, with moderate flooding likely at Fords Bridge Bywash from late Thursday. River levels are expected to continue to slowly rise with a moderate flood peak possible around mid next week.
Warrego River (NSW):
Moderate flooding is occurring along the Warrego River (NSW).
The Warrego River at Barringun No. 2 peaked at 4.12 metres around 11:00 pm Sunday 21 April and is currently at 3.97 metres and falling.
The Warrego River at Barringun No. 2 is likely to fall below the moderate flood level (3.80 m) overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.
No observations are currently available for Enngonia. It is estimated that the river level is currently above the minor flood level (2.00 m) and rising.
The Warrego River at Enngonia may peak near 2.40 metres Tuesday morning, with minor flooding.
The Warrego River at Fords Bridge Bywash is currently at 2.02 metres and rising, above the minor flood level (1.70 m).
The Warrego River at Fords Bridge Bywash is likely to exceed the moderate flood level (2.30 m) from late Thursday. The river level may peak near 2.70 metres around the middle of next week commencing 29th April.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
* Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
* Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
* Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
* Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/outerwest.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 01:00 pm EST on Wednesday 24 April 2024.
Latest River Heights:
Warrego River at Barringun No. 2,3.97,Steady,09:00 AM TUE 23/04/24
Warrego River at Fords Bridge Bywash,2.02,Steady,09:30 AM TUE 23/04/24
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Ellerslie (35.3016°S, 147.9383°E, 307m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW12° 17° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:13am EST 6:39am EST 5:32pm EST 5:58pm EST NOW11.9° Feels Like: 10.0° Relative Humidity: 77% Dew: 8.0° Wind: SW 7km/h Gust: 9km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1016.9hPa -
Today Weather
EllerslieNow16.1°cFeels Like:14.0°Wind:N 7km/hGusts:7km/hHumidity:56%12°Min17°MaxToday in EllerslieMostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower near the Victorian border, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h turning W/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 16 and 21.Tomorrow12°Min17°MaxPatches of morning frost. The chance of fog in the early morning. Sunny day. Light winds becoming SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 2 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 20. -
Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower near the Victorian border, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h turning W/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 16 and 21.
Forecast for Ellerslie (35.3016°S, 147.9383°E, 307m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 12° 4° 4° 7° 8° 8° 8° Maximum 17° 16° 17° 18° 20° 19° 19° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% 30% 60% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate No Rating Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Slight Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 19
(km/h)17
(km/h)4
(km/h)16
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(km/h)8
(km/h)6
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(km/h)7
(km/h)3
(km/h)8
(km/h)10
(km/h)8
(km/h)Wind direction WSW WSW WSW WSW ENE NNE ENE NNE ENE NNW NNE W E ESE Relative humidity 64% 37% 68% 41% 70% 42% 70% 43% 72% 43% 66% 40% 66% 43% Dew point 8°C 3°C 4°C 3°C 4°C 4°C 7°C 6°C 8°C 7°C 7°C 5°C 7°C 6°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Ellerslie Rain Forecast
Ellerslie 12-month Rainfall ForecastAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar2024202576665761010787105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Apr 23
ENSO status: Inactive/Neutral. El Niño ended. IOD status: Neutral, becoming strongly positive. SAM status: Leading to neutral and returning positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is presently in an inactive phase, for the first time since August 2021. Ocean cooling continues over the eastern Pacific Ocean as sea surface temperatures approach near-normal conditions. Warmer than normal waters are present across the western Pacific Ocean, including the Coral Sea with added moisture and humidity to influence weather conditions in the eastern regions of Australia. The atmosphere continues to be firmly neutral after weakening early in the year with 3 out of 7 global models forecasting a La Niña to develop this coming winter season. A neutral ENSO typically has no significant impact on Australian rainfall during winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase, although record-high ocean temperatures across the northwest Indian Ocean have the IOD index just tipping into a positivethreshold value. Persistent southeasterly winds over the eastern Indian Ocean during the previous month are forecast to ease with below-average wind speeds to develop off northwest Australia and the eastern Indian Ocean during the winter season. All international models are suggesting the IOD will strengthen into a strong positive phase over the next 2-3 months, with significant upwelling to start near Indonesia possibly following May. A positive IOD reduces the number of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia during winter and spring, thus reducing rainfall across central and southeastern parts of Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive (mid-April) with the outlook favouring a neutral phase forecast in May and then the likelihood of returning to a positive phase during winter. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. A positive SAM also reduces the impact of cold fronts and decreases the rainfall over southernAustralia. Rainfall outlooks are showing above-average rainfall over winter for WA and central and northern SA, and eastern regions of QLD and NSW. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected for western TAS, southern SA, and most of VIC.
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Long range rainfall forecast
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Past 5 Days
Ellerslie Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Apr 18- - -Friday
Apr 19- - -Saturday
Apr 20- - -Sunday
Apr 21- - -Monday
Apr 22- - -Legend -
Almanac
Almanac
Ellerslie minimum temp history (35.3016°S, 147.9383°E, 307m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.0° 05/03/2023 Coldest this month 5.5° 10/03/2023 Hottest on record 33.9 15/04/2004 Coldest on record -0.8 22/04/2006 Hottest this year 34.0° 05/03/2023 Coldest this year 5.5° 10/03/2023 Long term average 23.2° Long term average 8.9° Average this month 28.8° Average this month 12.7° Hottest April On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.2° 2005 Coldest April on record Avg. min. temp. 5.9° 1997 Ellerslie rainfall history (35.3016°S, 147.9383°E, 307m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 15.8mm 13/03/2023 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 60.8mm 10.3 days Wettest April on record 72.5mm 2009 Driest on record 0.0mm 2019 -
Year to Date
Ellerslie Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Apr 459.9mm 88.4 day(s) Total For 2023 21.8mm 3.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2022 425.2mm 59.0 day(s) Wettest Day 15.8mm Mar13 Lowest Temperature 5.5°C Mar10 Highest Temperature 34.0°C Mar 5 -
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Ellerslie Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 32.7 31.1 27.9 23.2 17.9 14.0 13.1 15.0 18.5 22.7 26.5 30.0 22.7 Mean Min (°C) 17.0 16.4 13.4 8.9 4.9 3.3 2.6 3.1 5.3 8.1 11.8 14.3 9.0 Mean Rain (mm) 45.2 49.4 50.3 32.1 39.5 63.4 63.2 56.0 60.8 52.0 69.5 59.7 625.5 Mean Rain Days 6.3 5.7 6.3 5.4 8.9 14.9 17.6 13.0 10.3 8.6 8.1 7.0 109.2